On Fundamentals and Exchange Rates: A Casselian Perspective
扩展购买力平价条件，构建三种关键汇率的联立方程模型，发现其动态预测在3个月以上显著优于随机游走模型，且比多数专业预测更准确。
Using an expanded version of the purchasing-power-parity condition we construct simultaneous equation models for three key exchange rates which incorporate meaningful long-run equilibrium relationships and complex short-run dynamics. We show that fully dynamic out-of-sample forecasts from these models are capable of significantly outperforming those of a random walk model over horizons as short as 3 months, and that they are also more accurate than the vast majority of professional forecasts.