Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy
研究发现自1980年代中期以来石油需求短期价格弹性显著下降，这解释了为何同等规模的石油减产会带来更强的油价上涨和更严重的宏观经济后果，而类似的油价上涨对产出的影响却更小。
Using time-varying BVARs, we find a substantial decline in the short-run price elasticity of oil demand since the mid-1980s. This finding helps explain why an oil production shortfall of the same magnitude is associated with a stronger response of oil prices and more severe macroeconomic consequences over time, while a similar oil price increase is associated with smaller output effects. Oil supply shocks also account for a smaller fraction of real oil price variability in more recent periods, in contrast to oil demand shocks. The overall effects of oil supply disruptions on the US economy have, however, been modest.