The Political Consequences of Income Shocks: Explaining the Consolidation of Democracy in France
研究19世纪末法国成为欧洲首个稳定男性普选议会民主制的原因，发现短期地方收入变化与支持共和党的选举结果存在因果关系，共和党胜选得益于多数地区未受降水导致的负面收入冲击。
This study analyzes the circumstances that enabled France to become in the late nineteenth century the first stable parliamentary democracy with universal (male) suffrage in Europe. It establishes a causal relationship between short-term variations in local income and the electoral support for the coalition of republican parties that represented the newly established regime. The results suggest the republican coalition won the parliamentary elections because most French regions did not suffer from transitory negative income shocks stemming from heavy precipitations. They thus raise questions about the rationality of voters and, ultimately, the actual causes of the consolidation of democracy in France.