Time-varying coefficients in the Almost Ideal Demand System: an empirical appraisal
推广了近乎理想需求系统的结构时间序列版本，允许系数随时间变化，并使用意大利家庭预算调查数据（1986-2001）从理论约束、统计诊断、预测表现和经济意义四个维度评估其表现，发现除短期预测外无显著优势。
This paper provides a generalisation of the structural time series version of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) that allows for time-varying coefficients (TVC/AIDS) in the presence of cross-equation constraints. An empirical appraisal of the TVC/AIDS is made using a dynamic AIDS with trending intercept as the baseline model with a data set from the Italian Household Budget Survey (1986-2001). The assessment is based on four criteria: adherence to theoretical constraints, statistical diagnostics on residuals, forecasting performance and economic meaningfulness. No clear evidence is found for superior performance of the TVC/AIDS, apart from improved short-term forecasts.