The relation between unemployment and interest rate:
使用ARMAX模型，发现荷兰、美国、加拿大、日本、德国、英国和法国的失业率与利率之间存在格兰杰因果关系，利率和工业产出是主要解释变量，工资率影响不大。
In bierens (1987) a granger casual relation was found between unemployment and the interest rate for the netherlands. In the present paper we will investigate whether there exists a similar granger casual relation between unemployment and interest rate for a number of other countries. It appears that, with our ARMAX modeling approach, this relationship is not confined to the netherlands, but also holds for the USA, Canada, Japan, Germany, the UK and France. For these countries the interest rate is the main explanatory variable, together with industrial production (the latter with one exception), whereas for most countries the wage rate is of minor or no importance as a determinant of unemployment. A number of economic theories can explain these phenomena of which the revenue maximization theory of baumol (1959) augmented with a flexible labor effort rate seems quite realistic