The Political Economy of the Budget Surplus in the United States
研究了美国当前预算盈余的来源、规模及未来趋势，分析了不同政治力量可能带来的财政情景，对关注美国财政政策的经济学者有参考价值。
Current surpluses in the U.S. have been achieved by a combination of a strong economy, low interest rates, and sharp cuts in defense spending. These surpluses follow a period (the 1980s) of rather exceptional budget deficit. This paper investigates the origin, size, and expected future patterns of the U.S. budget balance. It discusses how different political forces may generate alternative fiscal scenarios for the U.S. in the next decade.