Exports' Contribution to Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence for California, Massachusetts, and Texas, Using Employment Data
利用就业数据检验经济基础理论，发现基础定义最粗略时理论成立，但其他定义不成立，并讨论了区域乘数和外生冲击调整时机。
The paper shows an interregional trade model from which testable parameter restrictions for economic base theory, shown to be equivalent to the hypotheses of the Granger causality test, are derived. The results of the tests for three states, based on various bifurcation methods, suggest that economic base theory holds strongly for the crudest definition of the base, but not for others. The frequency analysis indicates a likely association between inherent cyclicalities in employment growth data and economic base theory. The regional multipliers and the timing of economic adjustments to exogenous shocks are also discussed.