The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns
研究发现1928至1997年间，美国新股发行中权益融资占比能有效预测市场回报，权益占比高时市场回报往往偏低，且该现象不支持有效市场假说，表明企业可能利用市场时机发行证券。
The share of equity issues in total new equity and debt issues is a strong predictor of U.S. stock market returns between 1928 and 1997. In particular, firms issue relatively more equity than debt just before periods of low market returns. The equity share in new issues has stable predictive power in both halves of the sample period and after controlling for other known predictors. We do not find support for efficient market explanations of the results. Instead, the fact that the equity share sometimes predicts significantly negative market returns suggests inefficiency and that firms time the market component of their returns when issuing securities.