Measuring the Implications of Sales and Consumer Inventory Behavior
利用两年家庭面板扫描数据，估计动态消费者选择模型，发现忽略动态的静态需求估计会高估自身价格弹性30%、低估交叉价格弹性最多5倍、高估转向不购买选项超过200%，从而影响政策分析。
Temporary price reductions (sales) are common for many goods and naturally result in large increases in the quantity sold. Demand estimation based on temporary price reductions may mismeasure the long-run responsiveness to prices. In this paper we quantify the extent of the problem and assess its economic implications. We structurally estimate a dynamic model of consumer choice using two years of scanner data on the purchasing behavior of a panel of households. The results suggest that static demand estimates, which neglect dynamics, (i) overestimate own-price elasticities by 30 percent, (ii) underestimate cross-price elasticities by up to a factor of 5, and (iii) overestimate the substitution to the no-purchase or outside option by over 200 percent. This suggests that policy analysis based on static elasticity estimates will underestimate price-cost margins and underpredict the effects of mergers. Copyright The Econometric Society 2006.