Climbing the drug staircase: a Bayesian analysis of the initiation of hard drug use
用贝叶斯方法分析挪威年轻人数据，研究大麻使用、个人倾向和毒品可及性对启动硬毒品的影响，检验“门户假说”的因果性。
Abstract Since empirical studies have shown that cannabis users are much more likely to initiate hard drug use, a causal linkage has been suggested (‘gateway hypothesis’). However, individual differences in proneness and accessibility to drugs provide alternative non‐causal explanations for the observed drug use pattern. We propose a Bayesian estimation and predictive framework to analyze the effects and relative importance of previous cannabis use, proneness and accessibility factors on hard drug initiation and to explore possible policy implications. We employ a novel model specification, motivated by four gateway transmission channels, to analyze data from a recent Norwegian survey of young adults. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.