A Corporate System Model of a Sports Club: Using Simulation as an Aid to Policy Making in a Crisis
为一家会员流失、财务困难的体育俱乐部构建企业系统模型，通过模拟测试补救措施，辅助董事会制定危机政策，展示了模拟作为政策制定工具而非预测工具的价值。
The sports club, described in this study, was losing members and in dire financial straits. It became obvious from the optimistic forecasts and fragmented historical records that the membership system was poorly understood by the club's decision making groups and committees. A corporate system model of the club was developed from interviews with the club executive and influential club members. In this way an understanding was gained of the fundamental system of relations determining the viability of the club. Various suggestions for remedial action were tried out on a simulation version of the model and the results communicated to the board of directors. The study serves to illustrate the use of computer simulation modeling, not as an optimising or forecasting tool, but as an aid to policy making in a crisis. It became part of the organizational behavior process for coping with an extreme situation that, in this case, had a happy ending. The study attempts to relate the scientific process of synthesizing a formal model with the psychological and socio-political processes of decision making in a complex system during a crisis.