US health services employment: A time series analysis
使用ARIMA模型分析美国卫生服务业就业增长，发现其滞后于整体经济就业2至4年，并评估了医保政策的影响。
The growth of health services employment in the United States is modelled using ARIMA analysis, and related to the growth in total U.S. employment. It is argued that specific features of the medical care sector (licensed professional manpower, non-profit firms, third-party financing) create institutional rigidities which delay adjustment to macroeconomic conditions and other shocks. Tests of Granger causality and the pattern of coefficients in the cross-correlation function show that health services employment does lag other sectors of the economy by an average of 2 to 4 years. A Box-Jenkins transfer-noise function model between total and health employment is constructed and evaluated, and the impact dynamics of adjustment to Medicare and Medicaid are estimated.