Individual Income, Incomplete Information, and Aggregate Consumption
构建一个生命周期消费模型，假设个人最优应对自身收入但忽略宏观信息，导致总消费过度平滑且自相关，并用微观和宏观数据校准模型，结果与实证大致吻合。
In this paper I study a model of life-cycle consumption in which individuals react optimally to their own income process but ignore economy wide information. Since individual income is less persistent than aggregate income consumers will react too little to aggregate income variation. Aggregate consumption will be excessively smooth. Since aggregate information is slowly incorporated into consumption, aggregate consumption will be autocorrelated and correlated with lagged income. The second part of the paper provides empirical evidence on individual and aggregate income processes and calibrates the model using the estimated parameters. The mode predictions roughly correspond to the empirical findings for aggregate consumption data. Allowing for the existence of measurement error in micro income, durables, finite lifetimes of consumers, and advance information improves the predictions of the model.