The march of an economic idea? Protectionism isn't counter-cyclic (anymore)
研究发现，二战后保护主义不再像一战前那样在经济衰退时上升，基于180多个国家40年的数据检验了多种保护主义指标和商业周期度量，并排除了多种可能原因，认为现代经济学家的共识可能抑制了保护主义的周期性。
Conventional wisdom holds that protectionism is counter-cyclic; tariffs, quotas and the like grow during recessions. While that may have been a valid description of the data before the First World War, it is now inaccurate. Since the Second World War, protectionism has not been counter-cyclic; tariffs and non-tariff barriers simply do not rise systematically during downturns. I document this new stylised fact with a panel of data covering over 180 countries and 40 years, using over a dozen measures of protectionism and six of business cycles. I test and reject a number of potential reasons why protectionism is no longer counter-cyclic. A 'diagnosis of exclusion' leads me to believe that modern economics may well be responsible for the decline in protectionism's cyclic behaviour; economists are more united in their disdain for protectionism than virtually any other concept. This in turn leaves one optimistic that the level of protectionism will continue to decline along with its cyclicality. — Andrew K. Rose