A Mechanism-Design Approach to Speculative Trade
研究当双方对未来事件有不同先验信念且这些信念并非共同知识时，能否通过机制设计实现投机性交易的收益。通过一个简单例子，分析在贝叶斯均衡下实施“受限中间有效”赌约的条件。
When two parties have different prior beliefs about some future event, they can realize gains through speculative trade. Can these gains be realized when the parties' prior beliefs are not common knowledge? We examine a simple example in which two parties having heterogeneous prior beliefs, independently drawn from some distribution, bet on what future action one of them will choose. We define a notion of "constrained interim-efficient" best and ask whether they can be implemented in Bayesian equilibrium by some mechanism. Our main result establishes that as the costs of unilaterally manipulating the bet's outcome become more symmetric across states, implementation becomes easier. In particular, when these costs are equal in both states, implementation is possible for any distribution.