Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling
指出经济模型通常假设决策者持有概率信念，但认为这种信念的形成需要更深入的建模，以理解其存在条件及在何种情况下不现实或不理性。
Economic modeling assumes, for the most part, that agents are Bayesian, that is, that they entertain probabilistic beliefs, objective or subjective, regarding any event in question. We argue that the formation of such beliefs calls for a deeper examination and for explicit modeling. Models of belief formation may enhance our understanding of the probabilistic beliefs when these exist, and may also help us characterize situations in which entertaining such beliefs is neither realistic nor necessarily rational.