Price Transmission in the EU Wholesale Petroleum Markets
用非线性平滑转换模型分析欧盟石油上下游价格关系,发现日度数据存在非线性,支持菜单成本或市场摩擦而非供给调整成本,与美国市场结果不同。
This article employs nonlinear smooth transition models to analyze the relationship between upstream and midstream prices of petroleum products. We test for the presence of nonlinearities in price linkages using both weekly series constructed using official EU procedures and also daily industry series applied for the first time. Our results show that the estimated shape of the transition function and equilibrium reversion path depend on the frequency of the price dataset. Our analysis of the crude oil to wholesale price transmission provides evidence of nonlinearities when prices are observed with daily frequency. The nature of the nonlinearities provides evidence in support of the existence of menu costs or, more generally, frictions in the markets rather than supply adjustment costs. This result differs from that found for the U.S. petroleum markets.