Counting Your Customers: Who-Are They and What Will They Do Next?
提出一个基于客户历史交易次数和时间的模型，用于计算客户仍活跃的概率，帮助企业管理客户基数、评估新产品表现和精准营销。
This article is concerned with counting and identifying those customers who are still active. The issue is important in at least three settings: monitoring the size and growth rate of a firm's ongoing customer base, evaluating a new product's success based on the pattern of trial and repeat purchases, and targeting a subgroup of customers for advertising and promotions. We develop a model based on the number and timing of the customers' previous transactions. This approach allows computation of the probability that any particular customer is still active. Several numerical examples are used to illustrate applications of the model.