A New Approach for Using Lévy Processes for Determining High‐Frequency Value‐at‐Risk Predictions
提出一种基于莱维过程的参数模型，结合ARMA-GARCH和分数莱维稳定噪声，用德国DAX指数高频数据预测在险价值，表现优于非参数方法和高斯模型。
Abstract A new approach for using Lévy processes to compute value‐at‐risk (VaR) using high‐frequency data is presented in this paper. The approach is a parametric model using an ARMA(1,1)‐GARCH(1,1) model where the tail events are modelled using fractional Lévy stable noise and Lévy stable distribution. Using high‐frequency data for the German DAX Index, the VaR estimates from this approach are compared to those of a standard nonparametric estimation method that captures the empirical distribution function, and with models where tail events are modelled using Gaussian distribution and fractional Gaussian noise. The results suggest that the proposed parametric approach yields superior predictive performance.