Precautionary Savings, Illiquid Assets, and the Aggregate Consequences of Shocks to Household Income Risk
研究了家庭收入不确定性在经济周期中的变化如何通过预防性储蓄影响总需求，发现不确定性上升导致家庭囤积流动性资产，抑制投资和消费，并用数据验证了模型预测。
Households face large income uncertainty that varies substantially over the business cycle. We examine the macroeconomic consequences of these variations in a model with incomplete markets, liquid and illiquid assets, and a nominal rigidity. Heightened uncertainty depresses aggregate demand as households respond by hoarding liquid “paper” assets for precautionary motives, thereby reducing both illiquid physical investment and consumption demand. We document the empirical response of portfolio liquidity and aggregate activity to surprise changes in idiosyncratic income uncertainty and find both to be quantitatively in line with our model. The welfare consequences of uncertainty shocks and of the policy response thereto depend crucially on a household's asset position