In the Right Place at the Wrong Time: The Role of Firms and Luck in Young Workers' Careers
利用德国年轻工人和雇主的行政数据，研究早期职业生涯失业的长期影响，发现工资损失最初为15%，但五年内消失，仅离开大型企业者遭受持久损失。
We examine administrative data on young German workers and their employers to study the long-term effects of an early career job loss. To account for nonrandom sorting of workers into firms with different turnover rates and for selective job mobility, we use changes over time in firm- and age-specific labor demand as an instrument for displacement. We find that wage losses of young job losers are initially 15 percent, but drop to zero within five years. Only workers leaving very large establishments suffer persistent losses. A comparison of estimators implies that initial sorting, negative selection, and voluntary job mobility biases ordinary least squares estimates toward finding permanent negative effects of early displacements.