News on Inflation and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations
利用密歇根大学调查数据，检验通胀新闻与家庭通胀预期之间的关系，发现消费者更新预期时并未向专业预测均值靠拢，对信息粘性模型的流行病学基础支持较弱。
This paper examines the nexus between news coverage on inflation and households’ inflation expectations. In doing so, we test the epidemiological foundations of the sticky information model (Carroll ). We use both aggregate and household-level data from the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan. We highlight a fundamental disconnection among news on inflation, consumers’ frequency of expectation updating, and the accuracy of their expectations. Our evidence provides at best weak support to the epidemiological framework, as most of the consumers who update their expectations do not revise them toward professional forecasters’ mean forecast.