Outlook vs. Futures: Three Decades of Evidence in Hog and Cattle Markets
比较了四种展望项目与期货市场对生猪和牛价格预测的准确性，发现两者均方根误差差异较小，但期货在方向预测上更优，且展望信息在部分情况下未被期货完全包含。
Abstract The accuracy of hog and cattle price forecasts from four outlook programs is compared with forecasts derived from futures markets. Most of the series begin in the mid to late 1970s and end in 2007. Root mean squared error (RMSE) comparisons indicate the difference between outlook and futures RMSE is relatively small in most cases. In directional terms, outlook forecasts beat futures prices only 2 out of 11 times in hogs, and 1 out of 7 times in cattle. However, the null hypothesis that futures encompasses outlook is rejected in 5 of 11 cases for hogs, and 4 of 7 cases for cattle.