Density and dispersion: the co-development of land use and rail in London
利用1871-2001年伦敦33个区每十年的面板数据，分析人口密度与铁路网络密度的双向因果关系，发现郊区铁路站增加促进人口增长，而中心区铁路导致商业发展和人口减少。
his paper examines the changes that occurred in the rail network \nand density of population in London during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. It aims to disentangle the 'chicken and egg' problem of \nwhich came first, network or land development, through a set of statistical analyses using clearly distinguishing events by order. Using a panel \nof data representing the 33 boroughs of London over each decade from \n1871 to 2001, the research finds that there is a positive feedback effect \nbetween population density and network density. Additional rail stations \n(either underground or surface) are positive factors leading to subsequent \nincreases in population in the suburbs of London, while additional population density is a subsequent factor in deploying more rail. These effects \ndiffer in central London, where the additional accessibility produced by \nrail led to commercial development and led to a depopulation. There are \nalso few differences in the effects associated with surface rail stations and underground stations, as the underground was able to get into central \nLondon in a way that surface rail could not. However the two networks \nwere weak (and statistically insignificant) substitutes for each other in the \nsuburbs, but the density of surface rail stations was a complement to the \nUnderground in the center, though not vice versa.