劳动力市场异质性、加总与DSGE模型参数的政策(非)不变性

LABOR-MARKET HETEROGENEITY, AGGREGATION, AND POLICY (IN)VARIANCE OF DSGE MODEL PARAMETERS

Journal of the European Economic Association · 2013
被引 48
人大 AABS 4

中文导读

模拟了不完全市场下异质性代理人经济的数据,发现代表性代理人模型的参数估计随政策变化,且其政策预测偏差较大,提醒宏观模型使用者注意参数可能不具政策不变性。

Abstract

Data from a heterogeneous-agents economy with incomplete asset markets and indivisible labor supply are simulated under various fiscal policy regimes and an approximating representative-agent model is estimated. Preference and technology parameter estimates of the representative-agent model are not invariant to policy changes and the bias in the representative-agent model's policy predictions is large compared to predictive intervals that reflect parameter uncertainty. Since it is not always feasible to account for heterogeneity explicitly, it is important to recognize the possibility that the parameters of a highly aggregated model may not be invariant with respect to policy changes.

异质性代理人模型代表性代理人模型参数非不变性政策评估偏差