Anatomy of a Decision Trap in Complex New Product Development Projects
通过对一家公司失败的新产品开发项目进行纵向过程研究，发现复杂动态环境中的信息过滤导致团队陷入决策陷阱，逐步降低项目成功概率。
We conducted a longitudinal process study of one firm's failed attempt to develop a new product. Our extensive data analysis suggests that teams in complex dynamic environments characterized by delays are subject to multiple “information filters” that blur their perception of actual project performance. Consequently, teams do not realize their projects are in trouble and repeatedly fall into a “decision trap” in which they stretch current project stages at the expense of future stages. This slowly and gradually reduces the likelihood of project success. However, because of the information filters, teams fail to notice what is happening until it is too late.