Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate Variability and Demand Uncertainty
研究汇率波动如何影响跨国公司在国内外配置生产能力的决策，发现当出口需求冲击与汇率冲击正相关时，公司会将更多产能放在国外，且汇率波动越大、相关性越高，海外产能占比越大。
Variable real exchange rates influence the country choice for location of production facilities by a multinational enterprise. With risk averse investors and fixed productive factors, a parent company should not be indifferent to the choice of production capacity location, even when the expected costs of production are identical across countries. If a non-negative correlation exists between real export demand shocks and real exchange rate shocks, the multinational will optimally locate some of its productive capacity abroad. The share of production capacity optimally located abroad increases as exchange rate volatility rises and as export demand shocks become more correlated. These theoretical results are confirmed by empirical analysis of quarterly United States bilateral foreign-direct- investment flows with Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom.