The Effect of Life Expectancy on Fertility, Saving, Schooling and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence*
构建增长模型分析预期寿命延长如何降低生育率、提高储蓄率和教育投入，并利用76国数据验证这些效应随寿命增加而递减。
Abstract We construct a simple growth model where agents with uncertain survival choose schooling time, life‐cycle consumption and the number of children. We show that rising longevity reduces fertility but raises saving, schooling time and the growth rate at a diminishing rate. Cross‐section analyses using data from 76 countries support these propositions: life expectancy has a significant positive effect on the saving rate, secondary school enrollment and growth but a significant negative effect on fertility. Through sensitivity analyses, the effect on the saving rate is inconclusive, while the effects on the other variables are robust and consistent. These estimated effects are decreasing in life expectancy.