Assessing Scenario Probabilities Via Interactive Goal Programming
提出一种交互式目标规划方法，用于评估长期预测和决策分析中的情景概率，仅需少量事件的边际概率和序数或区间条件概率，并确保评估符合概率法则的一致性。
An interactive goal programming approach for assessing scenario probabilities used in long-range forecasting and decision analysis is developed and illustrated using a small numerical example. The method only requires marginal event probability and ordinal or interval first-order conditional probability assessments of a limited number of events constituting the scenarios and guarantees the consistency of the assessments in terms of the laws of probability calculus.