Farmers' Subjective Probabilities in Northern Thailand: An Elicitation Analysis
通过包含货币奖励的诱导方法，测量泰国北部农民对产量、价格和净收入的感知，发现其预期逻辑一致且与生产实践相符，并分析了风险来源预期及社会经济特征与预期准确性的关系。
Abstract The ability of agricultural decision makers to formulate logical expectations about the outcome of risky events in crop production and marketing is investigated. Measures of Northern Thailand farmers' perceptions of yield, price, and net income are attempted using an elicitation approach which includes a significant monetary reward. This approach is found to be feasible. The expectations derived are logical and consistent when compared to harvest results and farmers' actual production practices. Farmers' expectations about sources of risk and the correlation of socioeconomic characteristics with expectation accuracy are analyzed.