How to Evaluate the Solvency of an Indebted Nation
提出新的偿付能力指数，认为发展中国家不必全额还清债务，只要债务积累不超过未来偿还能力和贷款能力即可，并据此重新评估了阿根廷和巴西的政策调整。
Reassessing third world debt Daniel Cohen The conventional measures of the solvency of developing countries usually rely on such indices as debt-export or debt-GNP ratios. The underlying rationale is that, to be solvent, a country must eventually pay back all its debt. This paper starts from two simple but important remarks. First, solvency need not require the full eventual repayment of all debt. Continued borrowing may be possible. Rather, what is required is that a country's debt accumulation does not outstrip its capacity to make future repayments and the capacity of lenders to make future loans. Second, solvency therefore cannot be defined independently of the growth rates of lender and borrower countries, nor of the interest rate at which past debts accumulate. Putting these ideas together, a new solvency index is proposed, and this is computed for all the less developed countries. This new index suggests a less gloomy view of the international debt crisis. The largest debtors may have already accomplished an adjustment which is more than sufficient to restore their solvency when this is properly computed. To investigate this claim, there is a detailed analysis of the policies recently adopted in Argentina and Brazil.