Budget costs of the EC's agricultural price policy under uncertainty
论文分析了欧共体农业价格政策中预算成本的不确定性，发现预期成本常高于确定性假设下的值，并指出在农产品过剩情况下多种因素会加剧成本波动，对政策制定者具有参考价值。
Budget costs under the EC’s agricultural price policy are subject to several determinants which cannot be predicted with certainty. In the empirical part of the paper, the considerable extent of budget costs uncertainty is revealed. Basically, budget costs uncertainty exists because domestic and world market supply and demand are stochastic. The consequences of this kind of uncertainty are analysed in the theoretical part of the paper. Expected budget costs are shown to be often higher than their hypothetical certainty values. Moreover, several factors are found which enhance budget costs variance in the present surplus situation on EC agricultural markets. This demonstrates the limited value of deterministic analysis for actual EC budget costs planning under uncertainty.