Expectations Formation and Risk in Three Financial Markets: Surveying What the Surveys Say
综述利用调查数据研究金融市场预期形成和风险厌恶的文献，发现短期预期过度波动且存在跟风效应，长期预期则趋于回归稳定；债券和外汇市场远期汇率偏差部分源于时变风险溢价，且异质预期很重要。
This paper attempts to provide a logical overview of the literature which exploits survey data to examine issues of expectations formation and risk aversion in financial markets. Our survey suggests that: short term expectations are excessively volatile and exhibit bandwagon effects, while longer term expectations appear to be regressive and therefore stabilising; in bond and foreign exchange markets the standard result of forward rate biasedness is due in part to time‐varying premia; recent research using disaggregate foreign exchange survey data demonstrates the importance of heterogeneous expectations.