Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts
指出官方产出预测对评估周期性调整预算余额至关重要，并证明部分欧元区国家的预测偏差是导致过度赤字的一个被忽视因素，建议采用独立机构的预测来改进预算监控。
We point out that official forecasts of output dynamics are crucial to the assessment of cyclically adjusted budget balances, and provide evidence that in some euro-area countries biased forecasts have played a thus far neglected role in generating excessive deficits. We suggest that the forecast bias may be politically motivated, and that forecasts produced by an independent authority would be better than in-house Ministry of Finance forecasts for the purpose of monitoring budget formation and budget outcomes.