A Major in Science? Initial Beliefs and Final Outcomes for College Major and Dropout
利用独特纵向数据，研究大学生入学时对最终专业的信念如何影响实际专业选择与辍学，发现学生普遍高估自己获得科学学位的可能性，主要源于对自身科学学术能力的误解。
Taking advantage of unique longitudinal data, we provide the first characterization of what college students believe at the time of entrance about their final major, relate these beliefs to actual major outcomes, and provide an understanding of why students hold the initial beliefs about majors that they do. The data collection and analysis are based directly on a conceptual model in which a student's final major is best viewed as the end result of a learning process. We find that students enter school quite optimistic about obtaining a science degree, but that relatively few students end up graduating with a science degree. The substantial overoptimism about completing a degree in science can be attributed largely to students beginning school with misperceptions about their ability to perform well academically in science. Copyright 2014, Oxford University Press.