Differences of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns
发现分析师盈利预测分歧大的股票未来收益更低，尤其在小盘股和过去一年表现差的股票中，支持乐观者定价假说，而非风险代理假说。
ABSTRACT We provide evidence that stocks with higher dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts earn lower future returns than otherwise similar stocks. This effect is most pronounced in small stocks and stocks that have performed poorly over the past year. Interpreting dispersion in analysts forecasts as a proxy for differences in opinion about a stock, we show that this evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that prices will reflect the optimistic view whenever investors with the lowest valuations do not trade. By contrast, our evidence is inconsistent with a view that dispersion in analysts' forecasts proxies for risk.