Inflation Expectations and the Structural Shift in Aggregate Labor-Cost Determination in the 1980s
检验了20世纪80年代美国总劳动成本方程高估劳动成本通胀的原因，否定了通胀预期机制变化的假说，认为劳动成本决定存在真正的结构性转变。
Aggregate labor cost equations tended to overpredict labor-cost inflation in the United States in the 1980s. We consider the hypothesis that a change in the price-inflation-expectations mechanism can explain this apparent structural shift in the 1980s. We examine whether the sharp recession of the early 1980s and continued tight monetary policy throughout the decade may have led to changes in the relationship between past price inflation and expected price inflation such that distributed lags of price inflation persistently overestimated expected price inflation, and hence led to overprediction of labor-cost inflation by standard Phillips curves in this period. The evidence leads us to reject this hypothesis, and to conclude instead that there was a true structural shift in labor cost determination. Copyright 1993 by Ohio State University Press.