Fewer but Better: Sudden Stops, Firm Entry, and Financial Selection
构建了一个定量框架，研究金融危机对生产率的影响，利用智利企业数据发现信贷短缺期间新进入企业数量减少但质量更高，危机后总产出永久下降0.9%。
We develop a tractable quantitative framework to study the productivity effects of financial crises. The model features endogenous productivity, heterogeneous firm dynamics, and aggregate risk. Selection of the most promising ideas gives rise to a trade-off between mass (quantity) and composition (quality) in the entrant cohort. Chilean plant-level data from the sudden stop triggered by the Russian sovereign default in 1998 confirm the model’s main mechanism, as firms born during the credit shortage are fewer but better in terms of idiosyncratic productivity. The quantitative analysis shows that at the end of the crisis, total output is permanently 0.9 percent lower.