Stochastic Technology, Risk Preferences, and Adoption of Site‐Specific Technologies
建立农民决策模型，分析土壤肥力和天气不确定性如何影响定点技术的价值，发现忽视不确定性和风险厌恶会高估该技术的经济环境效益并低估所需补贴，有助于解释其低采用率。
A model of farmer decision making is developed to determine the extent to which uncertainties about soil fertility and weather affect the value of site‐specific technologies (SSTs) using jointly estimated risk and technology parameters. Uncertainty can lead risk‐averse farmers to apply more fertilizers and generate more pollution than in the certainty case. Ignoring uncertainty and risk aversion would overestimate the economic and environmental benefits of SSTs and underestimate the subsidy required to induce adoption. Accounting for uncertainties and risk preferences might explain the low observed adoption rates of SSTs. Improving the accuracy of SSTs would increase the incentives for adoption.