Estimation Risk in Farm Planning Under Uncertainty
研究估计风险如何影响决策者区分不同农场计划均值-方差特征的能力，并用Hazell数据说明需要大量数据才能确保不确定性下的规范分析可靠。
Abstract This paper examines the impact of estimation risk on a decision maker's ability to distinguish between the mean‐variance characteristics of different farm plans. The importance of making such distinctions should be clear; risk‐averse decision makers will want to bear risk only if they can be reasonably confident of commensurate increases in expected return. When parameters are unknown, statistically testing for differences in their estimated values is appropriate. An illustration of such tests using data from Hazell suggests considerable resources must be devoted toward data generation if normative statements under uncertainty are to be reliable.