Finite horizons, life-cycle savings, and time-series evidence on consumption
构建了一个加总的生命周期模型，允许有限生命周期和递减的劳动供给，解释消费的可预测性和过度平滑性，并用美国战后数据检验生命周期因素能否完全解释这些现象。
This paper develops an explicitly aggregated life-cycle model which allows for finite horizons and declining individual labor supply. The model can generate a common upward trend in aggregate consumption, labor income, and nonhuman wealth, without relinquishing Hall's random walk at the micro level. Life-cycle factors are shown to imply that consumption changes should be (a) predictable and (b) smoother than in the infinite-horizon model. Econometric evidence using postwar U.S. data suggests that neither consumption's predictability nor its excess smoothness can be fully accounted for by life-cycle considerations.