The inflation‐devaluation‐inflation hypothesis in Nicaragua
利用尼加拉瓜的可计算一般均衡模型，研究发现外汇约束经济未必陷入通胀-贬值恶性循环，但结合桑地诺政策后出现滞胀和收入分配恶化。
This article employs a computable general equilibrium model for Sandinista Nicaragua to argue that a foreign exchange constrained economy does not necessarily fall prey to the inflation‐devaluation‐inflation vicious cycle characteristic of more mature Keynesian economies. It is seen that when the economy is shocked by a devaluation, prices do not rise proportionately. Output increases and the distribution of income can actually improve. These results support Sandinista policy of raising wages along with devaluation, a policy widely criticised as counterproductive. When the model is structured to account for the combined effects of Sandinista policies, however, including rising government expenditure and multiple effective exchange rates, a host of macroeconomic problems experienced by the regime arise. Stagflation sets in, income distribution deteriorates and the incentives for export production seriously diminish.