Government Spending Multipliers in Developing Countries: Evidence from Lending by Official Creditors
利用官方债权人向发展中国家政府贷款的微观数据，构造工具变量估计政府支出乘数，发现一年期乘数约为0.4，对研究财政政策效果和债务问题的学者有参考价值。
I use a novel loan-level dataset covering lending by official creditors to developing country governments to construct an instrument for government spending. Loans from official creditors typically finance multiyear public spending projects, with disbursements linked to the stages of project implementation. The identification strategy exploits the long lags between approval and eventual disbursement of these loans to isolate a predetermined component of public spending associated with past loan approval decisions taken before the realization of contemporaneous shocks. In a large sample of 102 developing countries over the period 1970–2010, the one-year spending multiplier is reasonably-precisely estimated to be around 0.4.