Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700
利用1700年以来的数据，发现商品价格波动并未随时间加剧，且世界市场一体化反而降低了这种波动，对研究发展中国家经济波动和全球化影响有参考价值。
Abstract-Poor countries are more volatile than rich countries, and this volatility impedes their growth. Furthermore, commodity prices are a key source of that volatility. This paper explores price volatility since 1700 to offer three stylized facts: commodity price volatility has not increased over time, commodities have always shown greater price volatility than manufactures, and world market integration breeds less commodity price volatility. Thus, economic isolation is associated with much greater commodity price volatility, while world market integration is associated with less. © 2011 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.