泰勒规则与宏观经济不稳定:中央银行如何预防太阳黑子预期

Taylor Rules and Macroeconomic Instability or How the Central Bank Can Preempt Sunspot Expectations

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking · 2006
被引 13
人大 A-ABS 4

中文导读

研究存在生产外部性等市场不完全性的经济中,采用泰勒规则的效果,发现对产出变动的反应能阻止由规模报酬递增引发的太阳黑子均衡,且完美市场下应选择或避免的规则在不完美市场中可能产生多重或唯一理性预期解。

Abstract

This paper derives new results on the effects of employing Taylor rules in economies that are subject to real market imperfections such as production externalities. Policies which respond to output movements can block sunspot equilibria that arise from the increasing returns. The paper also finds that rules which should be chosen (avoided) in perfect market environments often yield (ensure) multiple (unique) rational expectations solutions in alternative settings. Therefore, exact knowledge on the degree of market imperfection may be integral for robust policy advice.

泰勒规则宏观经济不稳定太阳黑子预期市场不完美