Transition Shock: Can the East Get There from Here?
分析了苏联和东欧从行政命令计划转向市场社会主义的路径，指出成功前景暗淡，政治将长期不稳定，西方援助和投资需谨慎。
After sudden political liberalization, Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union seem poised to abandon administrative-command planning and embrace market socialism (which stops somewhere short of American-style capitalism). However, using the Soviet Union as a case in point, careful analysis of all plausible transition paths from the current system to Westernstyle markets suggests that prospects for success are dim. The revolution of rising expectations in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe sparked by Gorbachev's program of political liberalization is on a collision course with the immediate possibilities for fundamental economic change. The East is likely to be politically unstable for a long period, nor can the West alter this situation with massive foreign assistance because the Eastern nations cannot utilize the credits effectively. The Western business community therefore must be very constrained in its expectations about progress in the East and should approach the issues of private investment and governmental aid accordingly.