A Dynamic Model of Welfare Reform
利用1992、1993和1996年收入与项目参与调查面板数据，估计了劳动供给、福利参与和食品券参与的结构模型，模拟发现经济周期解释了1992-1999年女性户主劳动供给增长的一半，而福利改革方案能同时减少政府支出和提高效用。
A dynamic structural model of labor supply, welfare participation, and food stamp participation is estimated using the 1992, 1993, and 1996 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation. Details of various policies including welfare time limits, work requirements, and Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) are incorporated formally in the budget constraint. Policy simulations reveal that the economy accounts for half of the increase in the labor supply of female heads of family between 1992 and 1999. A time limit results in a larger efficiency gain than a work requirement or a direct reduction in welfare benefits. A reform package can lead to both a reduction in the government expenditure and an improvement in utility. The EITC expansion results in a substantial efficiency gain among individuals with the lowest expected wage. These individuals are almost unaffected by the economic expansion, but their income and utility increase significantly under the reform package.