Real-Business-Cycle Models and the Forecastable Movements in Output, Hours, and Consumption
通过VAR分析发现，实际经济中产出、工时和消费的可预测变动幅度远大于标准真实商业周期模型的预测，且三者高度正相关，而模型却认为它们不会同向变动。
We study the movements in output, consumption and hours that are forecastable from a VAR and analyze how they differ from those predicted by standard real-business-cycle models. We show that actual forecastable movements in output have a variance about one hundred times larger than those predicted by the model. We also find that forecastable changes in the three series are strongly positively correlated with each other. On the other hand, for parameters whose implications are plausible in other respects, the model implies that output, consumption, and hours should not all be expected to move in the same direction