Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations
研究了财政整顿的时间和方式（增税或减支）不确定时对宏观经济的影响，发现整顿的构成、持续时间、货币政策立场、政府债务水平以及预期都会决定其是否有助于扩张或稳定债务。
The paper explores the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal consolidations whose \ntiming and composition—either tax- or spending-based—are uncertain. We find that \nthe composition of the fiscal consolidation, its duration, the monetary policy stance, the \nlevel of government debt, and expectations over the likelihood and composition of fiscal \nconsolidations all matter in determining the extent to which a given consolidation is \nexpansionary or successful in stabilising government debt. We argue that the conditions \nthat could render fiscal consolidation efforts expansionary are unlikely to apply in the \ncurrent economic environment.