Do Good Institutions Promote Countercyclical Macroeconomic Policies?
基于1984-2008年112个工业和发展中国家的数据，研究发现制度质量高的国家能实施逆周期宏观经济政策，而制度质量低的国家则实施顺周期政策。
Abstract The literature has argued that developing countries are unable to adopt countercyclical monetary and fiscal policies due to financial imperfections and unfavourable political‐economy conditions. Using a world sample of up to 112 industrial and developing countries for 1984–2008, we find that the level of institutional quality plays a key role in countries’ ability and willingness to implement countercyclical macroeconomic policies. Countries with strong (weak) institutions adopt countercyclical (procyclical) macroeconomic policies, reflected in extended monetary policy and fiscal policy rules. The threshold levels of institutional quality at which policies are acyclical are found to be similar for monetary and fiscal policy.